Daily Market Outlook, April 22, 2026
Daily Market Outlook, April 22, 2026
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
US equity futures moved higher, and the dollar softened after President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran would be extended indefinitely, giving markets a modest relief bid after two sessions dominated by geopolitical uncertainty. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.6%, as investors leaned into the view that a sustained de-escalation could ease pressure on energy prices and reduce the near-term drag on global growth sentiment. The move comes after a more cautious cash session on Tuesday, when major US indices fell for a second straight day as markets digested mixed signals around US-Iran negotiations. Trump said talks had stalled because of a “seriously fractured” leadership structure in Tehran, while also indicating that the US would hold off on further strikes. At the same time, Washington is maintaining its blockade around the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping conditions remain difficult, leaving a meaningful geopolitical risk premium in place despite the more constructive headline tone. Across assets, the initial market read was classic relief trade. The dollar weakened, while equity futures firmed on hopes that reduced escalation risk could eventually bring oil prices lower and improve the macro backdrop. Even so, the energy market remains far from calm, with global crude still trading around $98/bbl, underscoring that investors are not yet willing to fully price out supply disruption risk. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7%, tracking the previous weakness on Wall Street as investors continued to question how durable any pause in hostilities will prove. The broader tone across the region remained cautious, and European stocks were set to open lower, suggesting that, while Trump’s announcement has helped stabilise sentiment at the margin, it has not fully reversed the defensive bias.
Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing was more notable for what it implied about the future Fed policy framework than for any immediate market signal. Once the discussion moved past his personal finances, Warsh largely stuck to expected themes: support for continued balance sheet reduction, criticism of the Fed’s current communications strategy, and a preference for a less pre-committed, more discretionary approach to policy. His references to “regime change,” a “new framework,” and “new tools,” alongside clear discomfort with “pre-deciding” outcomes ahead of meetings, pointed to a potentially meaningful shift in style from the Powell era. In practical terms, that suggests a Fed that could become less forward-guiding and less reliant on devices such as the dot plot, with a more meeting-by-meeting approach resembling the BoE under Bailey. That said, there was little in the hearing that materially shifted the near-term rates outlook. Warsh said less than expected about the implications of the AI boom for policy, and overall, his remarks were difficult to interpret as market-moving—something that likely worked in his favour, as he sought to project credibility and independence despite Trump’s public calls for lower rates. The most intriguing detail came on inflation, where Warsh flagged a preference for trimmed mean measures. That matters because the Dallas Fed trimmed mean currently runs around 0.7pp below core PCE, potentially offering one analytical route to a somewhat softer reading of underlying inflation in the near term. Even so, the broader takeaway was process change rather than policy surprise: a possible shift in how the Fed communicates and frames decisions, rather than a clear signal of imminent dovishness.
Domestically, UK March CPI was firm, but not alarming enough to force the MPC into immediate action. Headline inflation printed at 3.3% y/y, above the 3.0% rate the BoE had expected before the US-Iran energy shock, but still somewhat better than feared given the March MPC minutes had pointed to something close to 3.5%. More reassuringly, core CPI held at 3.1% y/y, in line with the pre-conflict forecast, suggesting there has not yet been a meaningful near-term broadening of energy-driven price pressure. Food inflation rose to 3.7% y/y, but even that came in a touch below the BoE’s pre-war projection. In short, while the inflation backdrop remains too firm for comfort, the data do not yet suggest a materially worse regime than the MPC had begun to prepare for. The less comfortable part of the report was services inflation, which rose 0.2pp to 4.5% y/y and will remain the key area of concern for policymakers. Fuel-sensitive components, such as airfares, at least partly contribute to that increase, although the ONS explanation leaves some ambiguity regarding the exact drivers. Even so, the broader market takeaway is that the release probably leans against a rate hike next week. The lack of a major upside surprise supports the view that Bailey can keep a divided MPC on hold for now, buying time to assess whether the energy shock broadens into more persistent domestic inflation pressure before the Committee is forced toward either the hawkish or dovish edge.
Overnight Headlines
ECB Has ‘Luxury’ To Wait On Interest Rate Rises, Says Top Policymaker
UK, France Convene Fresh Hormuz Summit On Re-Opening Planning
Trump Extends Iran Cease-Fire Indefinitely With Peace Talks In Limbo
US, Iran Peace Talks Uncertain With Vance Trip Scrapped
Iran Talks On Hold Because Of Trump’s Blockade
Fed Chair Pick Warsh Makes Case For Smaller Fed Holdings In Hearing
Sen Elizabeth Warren: Warsh Testimony Shows Lack Of Independence
Japan’s Export Growth Quickens As China Demand Rebounds
BoJ Watchers Now See June Rate Hike As Iran War Pushes Back Bets
UK, France Convene Fresh Hormuz Summit On Re-Opening Planning
Anthropic’s Mythos Model Is Being Accessed By Unauthorized Users
United Airlines Cuts Full-Year Forecast On Rising Fuel Costs
Capital One Boosts Provision For Bad Loans, Misses Estimates
BHP Expects Annual Copper Output In Upper Half Of Guidance
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)
EUR/USD: 1.1850 (EU2.89b), 1.1750 (EU1.15b), 1.1800 (EU1.09b)
USD/JPY: 153.00 ($982m), 158.00 ($866.5m), 156.00 ($693.1m)
AUD/USD: 0.6670 (AUD1.47b), 0.6200 (AUD1.05b), 0.6000 (AUD500m)
USD/CNY: 6.5750 ($815m), 7.5050 ($666.2m)
GBP/USD: 1.3250 (GBP776.5m), 1.2350 (GBP401m), 1.3350 (GBP370.1m)
USD/CAD: 1.3700 ($520m)
NZD/USD: 0.5560 (NZD1.05b), 0.6100 (NZD606.6m), 0.5835 (NZD475m)
USD/MXN: 17.52 ($316.4m)
EUR/GBP: 0.8800 (EU310.7m)
USD/BRL: 5.3100 ($669.9m), 5.4900 ($570m), 5.6000 ($455.4m)
CFTC Positions as of April 10, 2026:
Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 186,638 contracts to 414,897
Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 71,259 contracts to 1,011,108
Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 72,816 contracts to 1,625,745
Speculators trim CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 23,259 contracts to 800,365
Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 8,209 contracts to 1,703,806
Speculators increase CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 40,440 contracts to 300,823
Speculators increase CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 15,120 contracts to 74,116
Bitcoin net long position is 2,193 contracts
Swiss franc posts net short position of -34,097 contracts
British pound net short position is -54,724 contracts
Euro net long position is 26,018 contracts
Japanese yen net short position is -83,208 contracts
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 7000 Target 7200
Below 6950 Target 6850
DXY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 98.60 Target 99
Below 98.50 Target 97
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 1.1720 Target 1.19
Below 1.1690 Target 1.1590
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 1.3430 Target 1.3610
Below 1.34 Target 1.3290
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 158.50 Target 161
Below 157.30 Target 156.50
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 4600 Target 5000
Below 4500 Target 4350
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 73.5k Target 80k
Below 72.6k Target 70.5k
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% and 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!