SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 15/10/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~60 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6750/60
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6693 SUP 6411
OCT EOM STRADDLE 6602/6891
OCT MOPEX 6842/6487
DEC QOPEX 6303/7025
DAILY MARKET BALANCE – 6581/6806
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6670/80
DAILY RANGE RES 6743 SUP 6626
2 SIGMA RES 6800 SUP 6570
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 20
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
The S&P 500 closed down 16 basis points at 6,644, with a market-on-close (MOC) of -$535 million in sell orders. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) fell 69 basis points to 24,579, while the Russell 2000 (R2K) rose 144 basis points to 2,496, marking a new all-time high. The Dow Jones increased by 44 basis points to 46,270. A total of 20 billion shares were traded across all U.S. equity exchanges, surpassing the year-to-date daily average of 17.2 billion shares. The VIX climbed 709 basis points to 20.39, WTI Crude dropped 175 basis points to $58.43, the U.S. 10-year yield remained unchanged at 4.02%, gold increased by 61 basis points to $4,158, the DXY fell 22 basis points to 99.04, and Bitcoin decreased by 281 basis points to $112,576.
The day began with a negative sentiment following sanctions imposed by Beijing on U.S. subsidiaries of a South Korean shipbuilder. However, the market gradually recovered, driven by short interest and beta, with the Russell 2000 reaching a new all-time high after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell commented on the labor market's downward trajectory and acknowledged tightening liquidity conditions. He reiterated the plan to halt balance sheet runoff when reserves are above a level deemed sufficient, suggesting this could happen in the coming months, with a current baseline for runoff to conclude by the end of Q1 next year.
In terms of earnings, major banks such as WFC, C, BLK, and JPM reported positive results, which should support the sector. However, there is an ongoing concern about a potential pullback in AI-related stocks, which could significantly impact both banks and the broader market. Today’s standout sectors were Consumer Finance and Private Credit, with general sentiment being positive.
In AI news, Walmart's stock rose by 5% after announcing a partnership with OpenAI to enable shopping through ChatGPT with Instant Checkout. In contrast, Amazon's stock fell by 1%. Additionally, reports emerged that OpenAI is collaborating with ARM on AI chip development, negatively impacting NVIDIA’s stock, which dropped by 3%.
Late in the day, a tweet from former President Trump stated that he believes China's refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans constitutes an economically hostile act. He mentioned the possibility of terminating trade with China regarding cooking oil and other products, emphasizing U.S. self-sufficiency in cooking oil production.
Overall market activity was moderate, rated a 4 on a scale of 1 to 10. The floor finished down 476 basis points for buyers, compared to a 30-day average of +55 basis points. Trading flows were subdued and primarily focused on earnings reports. Long/short funds ended the day as net sellers by approximately $800 million, with supply concentrated in tech and smaller demand in energy and utilities. Hedge fund flows remained flat, with supply in tech and demand in utilities and macro products. Cyclical stocks had their best performance relative to the Magnificent Seven over the past year.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!