Daily Market Outlook, November 25, 2025 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Tech stocks gave global markets a boost for the third consecutive day, fuelled by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The MSCI All Country World Index edged up by 0.1%, driven by optimism after additional Fed officials voiced support for a potential rate reduction. In Asia, stocks climbed, with tech giants like TSMC leading the way. Meanwhile, gold, which typically thrives during periods of lower interest rates, continued its upward momentum, trading at approximately $4,150 per ounce. In the U.S., equity-index futures remained relatively flat, while European markets were predicted to open with a slight dip. Over in Hong Kong and China, stocks advanced after Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping resumed discussions for the first time since agreeing on a tariff truce last month. After weeks of uncertainty, money markets now see nearly a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December meeting. Elsewhere in the financial world, Bitcoin's volatile streak persisted, slipping after a brief two-day rally. Oil prices also declined as progress in Ukraine peace negotiations raised the possibility of increased supply, offsetting the broader risk-on sentiment seen across global markets.

The revised calendar of data releases from the Bureau of Labour Statistics, updated following the end of the government shutdown, indicates that the next wave of timely data will arrive shortly after the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) rate decision on December 10. For example, the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for release on December 18, two days after the combined October-November employment report. Notably, the October CPI report has been cancelled. This delayed timeline strengthens the argument for maintaining rates at current levels during the upcoming meeting, as policymakers may lack sufficient data to guide their decisions. However, remarks from Williams last Friday, suggesting there is room for a “near-term” rate cut, have provided equity markets with some optimism, increasing the likelihood of a December move. Overnight, Daly, though a non-voting member, echoed similar sentiments, warning that the labour market is “vulnerable enough now that the risk is it’ll have a nonlinear change.” This has further bolstered market expectations of a rate cut next month. While it is not the Federal Reserve’s role to focus solely on stabilising equity indices, recent concerns among some participants about tech sector valuations suggest that the Fed’s dovish tone in recent comments has provided some reassurance to markets in this instance.

When tomorrow’s UK Budget is released, markets are likely to focus on several key aspects. One major consideration is the fiscal headroom, where a buffer of less than £15bn in 2029-30 under the main fiscal rule could be seen as underwhelming. Another critical factor is the policy measures themselves. While the total fiscal tightening is expected to be around £30bn, the timing of these measures will be crucial. If tax increases are heavily backloaded, gilt investors might question the credibility of the plan. Inflation forecasts will also be under scrutiny. The extent to which cost-of-living policies influence the Bank of England may already be priced in, meaning it could take a significant surprise to move the market. Additionally, attention will turn to whether the OBR overrides the market's Bank Rate curve, particularly if the government’s policy package is expected to suppress inflation more than anticipated—though this scenario remains unlikely. The government’s total cash requirement over the next five years compared to March projections will also be a focal point, though significant changes are not expected. For the remainder of the year, it will be important to assess how much planned gilt sales for 2025-26 increase, with estimates suggesting an additional £10bn. Finally, revisions to GDP and productivity assumptions, particularly adverse changes, have been well signalled. However, markets will closely evaluate how policy tightening could further exacerbate economic headwinds. These are some of the primary details that will command investor attention.

Overnight Headlines

  • Fed’s Daly Backs December Rate Cut, Citing Vulnerable Labour Market

  • Fed Chair Powell’s Allies Provide Opening For December Rate Cut

  • US Treasuries Rise As Traders Add To December Rate-Cut Bets

  • Morgan Stanley: Yen To Strengthen 10% In Months On US Rate Cuts

  • Russia Bombards Kyiv After Trump Voices Hope For Deal On Ukraine

  • US, Ukraine Draft New 19-Point Peace Plan But Defer Biggest Decisions

  • US Holds Secret Russia–Ukraine Peace Talks In Abu Dhabi

  • China’s Xi Calls Trump In Unusual Move To Discuss Taiwan, Ukraine

  • Trump Says He’ll Visit China In April And Host Xi Next Year

  • EU Rejects US Demand To Ease Tech Rules For Lower Steel Tariffs

  • Germany To Solicit Bids For Gas Plants In March, Minister Says

  • ECB Scrutinising Claims Deutsche Underplayed Financial Risks

  • Apple Cuts Jobs Across Its Sales Organisation In Rare Layoff

  • Zoom Reports Strong Sales In Bright Sign For Expanded Products

  • Google Further Encroaches On Nvidia’s Turf With New AI Chip Push

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.1400 (511M), 1.1435 (260M), 1.1500 (711M), 1.1570-75 (557M)

  • 1.1595-05 (363M), 1.1625 (1.8BLN), 1.1650-60 (414M)

  • USD/JPY: 155.40-50 (442M), 156.00 (903M), 156.50 (294M), 157.00 (244M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3000 (234M), 1.3100-05 (351M),

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8770 (461M), 0.8820-25 (570M), 0.8950 (365M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6425-30 (667M), 0.6500 (385M), 0.6550 (279M)

  • NZD/USD: 0.5600 (750M), 0.5720 (800M). AUD/NZD: 1.1600 (511M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.4095-00 (359M)

CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 7/10/25 

  • CFTC FX positioning data backlog clears January 20. Data for the week ending September 30 published Wednesday. October 14 data next Tuesday (Nov 25). Upcoming data on December 2, 5, 9, 12, 16, 19, 23, 30, followed by January 6, 9, 13, 16, 20. Normal service resumes January 23.

  • CFTC Positions for the Week Ended October 7th:

  • - S&P 500 CME net short: +20,343 contracts (458,398 total)

  • - S&P 500 CME net long: +9,589 contracts (944,434 total)

  • - CBOT US 5-year Treasury net short: +3,838 contracts (2,267,738 total)

  • - CBOT US 10-year Treasury net short: +48,050 contracts (787,958 total)

  • - CBOT US 2-year Treasury net short: +12,837 contracts (1,219,958 total)

  • - CBOT US UltraBond net short: +7,409 contracts (266,858 total)

  • - CBOT US Treasury bonds net short: -16,378 contracts (62,352 total)

  • - Bitcoin net short: -1,108 contracts

  • - Swiss franc net short: -27,470 contracts

  • - British pound net short: -4,476 contracts

  • - Euro net long: 118,365 contracts

  • - Japanese yen net long: 46,307 contracts

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 6643 Target 6738

  • Below 6630 Target 6527

EURUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 1.1554 Target 1.1651

  • Below 1.1520 Target 1.1429

GBPUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 1.3135 Target 1.3192

  • Below 1.3089 Target 1.3021

USDJPY 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 157.03 Target 158.06

  • Below 155.06 Target 153.50

XAUUSD

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 4084 Target 4199

  • Below 4050 Target 3990

BTCUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 87.1k Target 93.2k

  • Below 86.1k Target 80.7k